One of Kazakhstan's largest forest climate projects, Greening of the Dried Aral Sea, is under way on the dried bed of the Aral Sea. Its aim is to anchor the sands with saxaul and earn carbon credits for the carbon absorbed.
What we know about the project
The project is listed in the Verra registry under ID 5628 and uses the VM0047 methodology for afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR). The crediting period runs from 2 February 2026 to 1 February 2067. The proponent is the Dutch company Green Earth, with Aral Sea Land LLP as the local partner.
How planting is going
Since 25 March 2026, 530 hectares have been planted — more than 200,000 saxaul trees. Survival is about 40% in the main zone and 80–90% on experimental plots. Mass planting is planned for 2027, and the long-term goal is 100,000 hectares and 2.7 million tonnes of CO₂.
Why satellites are essential
VM0047 requires an annual estimate of carbon stock from a satellite index at 30 m resolution or better, compared against control plots. In May 2026 Verra began vetting providers of this data. For a project spanning tens of thousands of hectares, regular satellite monitoring is the only way to confirm how much saxaul survived and how much carbon it absorbed.
What it means for other projects
The Aral experience shows that in a dry climate survival varies widely between plots. Soil moisture and NDVI monitoring help choose where to plant, and data at up to 1 m resolution finds problem areas before a ground inspection would.